SWF_130911.pdf example of severe weather forecasting bulletin

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    I will like to share with you the experience of what we are doing in ACMAD in risk management specially  climate risk management. we do issue weather and climate forecast for early warning to many users like National met services ; national risk management services and other institutions. We do two types of forecast; meduim and long range forecast. This  is a saisonal forecast which gives an overview of the behaviour of the saison; rainfall above normal or rainfall below normal; this forecast which we give every year before the beginning of the saison is helping our users to make their plan in term of responds for example when  high rainfall events is expecting a govement or DRM institution can decide to relocate people living in the vulnerable areas; buys sufficiants respond equipment and so on. The second product is short range forecast bulletin which we issue every two days. we have flood risk bulletin; this give you zones of flood risk. with three types of risk; low ; meduim and high risk of flood.The short range bulletin is also about the severe weather forecasting in general; this include High rainfall; extreme temperature; strong Wind and wave for the sea state. I can assure you that more achievement is done in this domain even though  we still need some help to have more accurate weather forecast. For example we were able to forecast  most of the flood occured in this current years at least two days before. A warning of  meduim risk of flood in Ouagadougou Burkina Faso was given two days before; the flood has occured in 1 september  2009 we have issued a warning on 29 August 2009; also  in 19 august 2012  in Niamey  which is one of the most serious flood in Niger was forecast three days before with  a warning of high risk of flood. The big deal is  now how to use and apply this information.